The United States may be heading toward another partial federal government shutdown, as Democratic lawmakers threaten to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) amid growing political tensions. The risk follows last year’s longest federal government shutdown in US history, which was triggered by budget disputes in Congress. Here is what we currently understand — with the crucial note that the Trump administration has not disclosed any public agency-specific shutdown strategies.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
The Trump administration has prioritized the expansion of ICE’s operations as one of its foremost national objectives. Since assuming office, it has allocated personnel and resources to enhance the agency’s activities, leading to an increase in arrests and deportations. Given that the majority of ICE’s functions are classified as “essential” law enforcement duties, enforcement and deportation activities would persist with minimal disruption during a shutdown. Consequently, throughout the shutdown, ICE would maintain its existing trends and levels of immigration enforcement, which include arrests and raids, the expansion of the rapidly increasing detention system, and deportations. Additionally, the agency generally continues to manage the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS), ensuring that there is no interruption in foreign student enrolment and status maintenance. In 2022, ICE projected that during a shutdown, it would need to furlough only 17% of its workforce. However, the effects of a shutdown on ICE in 2026 may be even less significant. When Congress enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July, it allocated $29.9 billion for enforcement and $5 billion for detention, to be utilized through September 2029. This unprecedented funding level can persist even if the larger federal government experiences a shutdown, including the hiring and expansion of its workforce.
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
USCIS is predominantly funded by fees collected from immigrants, U.S. citizens, and employers for application processing. This structure largely protects USCIS from shutdowns, allowing most of the agency to function normally. Application interviews, naturalization ceremonies, biometrics processing, and other components of the legal immigration framework should remain unaffected during a shutdown. In 2022, USCIS estimated that only about 1% of its personnel would be placed on leave during a shutdown. However, due to the existing high backlogs at USCIS and the reallocation of resources from standard adjudication to immigration enforcement, assessing the direct consequences of a shutdown may prove difficult. The 1% of personnel that would be placed on leave would still have significant implications. The Conrad 30 program, which facilitates the arrival of doctors to rural areas in America, might be halted. Nevertheless, the most substantial effect would stem from a shutdown of the E-Verify system, which is financed by Congress and serves as a means to verify whether a potential employee is legally permitted to work in the U.S. In the event of a shutdown, employers would lose access to the system and would need to manually check I-9 documents, although USCIS might allow alternative verification methods as they have in previous instances. While USCIS typically extends the timeframe for E-Verify compliance during shutdowns, there could still be repercussions for federal contractors mandated to utilize E-Verify and for employers in states that require the specific application of the E-Verify system.
Executive Office for Immigration Review
In contrast to USCIS, immigration courts, which operate under EOIR, are predominantly funded by Congress. They are required to suspend most “non-essential” operations during a shutdown. In past shutdowns, all non-detained immigration court hearings were classified as “non-essential” and were therefore suspended. If a shutdown persists, it could result in the rescheduling of tens of thousands of cases, similar to the previous shutdown in 2019, which led to between 80,000 and 94,000 cases being delayed. However, that shutdown occurred when there were only 1 million pending cases and significantly fewer immigration judges. With over 3.4 million cases currently awaiting resolution, a shutdown affecting the non-detained docket would likely result in an even greater number of cases being paused daily compared to 2019. Detained immigration court hearings are expected to proceed as usual, as they have during past government shutdowns.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection
CBP’s law enforcement activities are classified as “essential” and will proceed without interruption during a shutdown, although some support personnel may face furloughs. In 2022, CBP projected that merely 8% of its workforce would be placed on leave during a shutdown. Despite the limited effects, this could result in some delays in the processing of specific applications submitted at the border, such as L-1 visas. Similar to ICE, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act funding may also offer CBP some financial stability to maintain operations and compensate federal law enforcement officers even amid a shutdown. Congress allocated $7 billion to the agency for Border Patrol recruitment and vehicle acquisition, $6.2 billion for border technology enhancements, and $2.1 billion for border processing.
U.S. Department of State
Like USCIS, the State Department’s visa processing and consular services are mainly funded by fees and typically remain functional during government shutdowns. However, if there are inadequate fees to sustain consular services at a specific consulate or embassy, the post may restrict services to only diplomatic visas and the processing of standard applications in “life or death” emergency circumstances.
